Gujrat has been a strong hold of BJP since last thirty years. The legacy of BJP in Gujrat was not created by Narendra Modi,it was a spontaneous loyalty to the Hindu sympathizer party. Narendra Modi carries forward this sympathy successfully. The Gujrat riot made the bonding between BJP and 88% of the Hindu population of Gujrat stronger. This utopia is melting slowly in Gujrat. For the first time a caste equation is being discussed, though Gujrat people have never behaved strongly in the caste line, like Uttar Prdesh and Bihar.The only equation which matters for Gujrat is the Muslim Voters. Muslim population is only 9% of Gujrat against 88% of Hindus; however they are on a concentrated form in 39 Assembly segments. After the infamous Gujrat riot, Muslims are politically united and strongly with the Congress. This unity is a dividend for BJP to unite the Hindus in their favor, by creating hate stories. Obviously the Muslim dominated 39 seats are the only volatile seats of Gujrat so far and rest is almost the safe haven of BJP, till date. This time equation of Gujrat has been molded into caste equation, through the OBC voters. These OBCs’ are accounted for in 70 seats of Gujrat. In 2012 election, the winning margin of 61 seats were below 10000, among them 35 seats were below 5000.Again the winning margin of almost 90% seats were below 20000.If records of 2007 election are to be believed compiling with 2012, the low winning margin is a common phenomena of Gujrat election .These data are a sign of discomfort for the BJP in this election. During the last two elections the number of winning seats of BJP and Congress was almost equal, around 127 and 60 respectively. It means the vote pockets of BJP and Congress are almost fixed and both the parties have permanent loyal voters. The percentage of vote share of BJP and Congress was Constantly around 49% and 39% respectively in both 2007 and 2012 election. It means apart from Muslim voters, Congress has some other loyal voters; these are probably the Dalits and the people unhappy with the Gujrat Model of Modi.
Surely the Gujrat Model of development is under threat after GST and Demonetization. This is a worry for BJP, combined with the trouble of anti incumbency. A 7% swing of the existing Vote bank of BJP could change the narrative of Gujrat Election. In this light BJP has a lot of threat to overcome. Congress is ahead of uniting the minor stake holders and an early back through have been gained by Congress. As mentioned earlier, the most alarming threat for BJP is from the business community of Gujrat. Being a state of entrepreneurs, the business community of Gujrat is a powerful force to influence the election result of Gujrat as well as of India. The corporate houses of Gujrat were the architect behind the making of Narendra Modi in 2014. Rather this angel is looking more delicate for BJP, then the political caste sociology of Gujrat. The Gujrati Business community is affected very seriously in demonetization and GST as well. Gujrat has been a hub of both formal and informal economy of India. Demonetization has ruined both the sector. The dalits , other backward class people and poor are not happy with the increasing economic gap of the State. So a combo of issues is overriding the Hindu enigma of 2001. The “Vikash gone Crazy” slogan of Congress has reaped early dividends. People have appreciated and accepted this observation. The only advantage of BJP is Narendra Modi.The last minute damage control attempt of Narendra Modi speak volumes of his nervousness towards the Gujrat turmoil.On the psychological front, Gujrat is the key of 2019 election and Gujrat “Asmita” is the only and ultimate card for Modi to play with.