A cyclone may occur towards the end of the month. Various models indicate that a cyclone could reach the coast around the 29th–30th. Some models even project that it might strike the Odisha coast with significant intensity. It is not easy to make a precise forecast at this stage; the exact intensity and potential path cannot yet be determined. Nevertheless, the cyclone projections from various models, combined with the timing in October, have heightened concerns. High sea surface temperatures could create an environment conducive to the formation of a cyclone. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has previously indicated that a cyclonic circulation is likely to form over the Andaman Sea around the 21st. A low-pressure area may form over the south-east Bay of Bengal by the 24th. However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has not yet issued any statement regarding this. Conversely, international weather models—specifically ECMWF and GFS—indicate that this potential low-pressure system could intensify into a cyclone.
According to the Meteorological Department, light to moderate rainfall is expected on the 20th in the districts of Kalahandi, Kandhamal, Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri, Gajapati, and Ganjam. On the 21st, rain may occur in a few isolated places in Malkangiri. On the 22nd, light rainfall is likely in some areas across Nabarangpur, Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri, Ganjam, Gajapati, Puri, Khordha, and Nayagarh. According to meteorologists, the formation of a cyclonic circulation over the southeast Bay of Bengal between the 22nd and 24th is certain. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is expected to form around the 25th or 26th. Since it will be located at a significant distance from Odisha by that time, the weather across the state will remain largely dry during Kumar Purnima.
