A new study finds that El Niño events increase the risk of violent conflict and war around the world. Scientists analyzed 555 armed conflicts from 1950 to 2023 and found that when El Niño is active, the risk of violence increases. The study further demonstrates the growing link between climate change and conflict.
El Niño is a warming phase in the Pacific Ocean. It occurs every 3-7 years. It completely changes the climate in many parts of the world. In some places, there is heavy rain. In others, there is severe drought. The study found that where droughts are caused by El Niño, such as in Central and South America, the risk of violent conflict increases.
The researchers analyzed 555 armed conflicts over 73 years. War and violence increase in drought-stricken areas during El Niño. This is not the first study to show a link between El Niño and conflict, but it is the most comprehensive to date. The study also mentions the Indian Ocean Dipole (sometimes called the Indian Niño). This is a phenomenon in the Indian Ocean that brings rain and severe drought to parts of Asia and Africa. Excessive rain or drought increases the risk of conflict in Southeast Asia and the Horn of Africa.
The Indian Ocean Dipole can change very quickly. This can lead to sudden changes in the climate. This can increase the risk of lawlessness and violence in already fragile areas, said Sylvia Dee, a climate scientist at Rice University. The study is published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
According to the researchers, this will help governments and humanitarian organizations understand when and where climate change could exacerbate conflict. Another El Niño is expected this summer, which could be the strongest in decades. This could lead to increased violence in many fragile countries due to drought, food shortages and water scarcity. The study once again proves that climate change is not just an environmental problem, but also a cause of social instability, food shortages and violent conflict. Events like El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole are a call for peace in fragile parts of the world.
